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Nigeria's 'wild west' fears replay of poll unrest
IBADAN, Nigeria (Reuters) -- Retired judge Adewale Thompson recalls the hours spent hearing cases of rioting as political unrest swept his home region in western Nigeria in the 1960s. As the country heads for critical national elections this month, Thompson warns his compatriots of a looming "Armageddon" if the polls trigger widespread violence as most Nigerians fear. "If in the 1960s Nigeria was on a precipice, today it has left the precipice and is descending," said Thompson, referring to spiralling unrest and cracks in the patchwork of some 250 ethnic groups that make up Africa's most populous country. The 1960s disturbances around disputed elections in what was called Nigeria's "wild west" led directly to the country's first military coup in 1966 and a catastrophic civil war a year later. An estimated one million people died in the 30-month conflict. The crisis in the west, home of the Yoruba who are one of Nigeria's three main ethnic groups, was the first major test of a federal structure left by British colonial rulers at independence in 1960 and dominated by three powerful regions. Yoruba nationalists like Thompson describe the orgy of killing and burning as a popular uprising against a meddling central government dominated by the two other major tribes -- the Hausa-Fulani of the north and the Ibo of the east. "Those burning houses were not thugs. They were civil servants in ties, fighting for freedom," said Thompson, sitting in the expansive living room of his home in Ibadan, the Yoruba's political capital. The unrest likely to erupt around the presidential and legislative elections between April 12 and May 3 will be different, and totally uncontrollable, he said. It will be fueled by poverty among Nigeria's more than 120 million people and hijacked by the legions of tribal militia groups that have sprung up across the country since 1999. Fear of uprising"People talk of a military coup. It will be a people's revolt. People will say we've had enough," Thompson said. "It will be uncontrollable because you already have the militias. In the east you have the Bakassi Boys. Here you have the OPC," he added, naming two outlawed armed groups. The Yoruba OPC (Oodua Peoples Congress) was declared banned by President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2000 after it was accused of fomenting ethnic clashes in Lagos that killed hundreds. It remains active in Yorubaland which covers Lagos and the southwestern hinterland where its militants have meted out summary justice, such as burning suspected robbers alive. Many political analysts put the southwest and Ibadan at the top of potential flashpoints as the elections approach. But an estimated 10,000 people have died in various clashes since 1999 and there are plenty of other danger spots. The volatile Niger Delta is aflame with ethnic disputes and squabbles over oil. The rise of Sharia law in northern states has fueled clashes between majority Muslims and other groups. Farmers and herders are locked in perennial clashes in central Nigeria while parts of the southeast are in the sway of vigilante groups with political undertones. Less than an hour after Thompson spoke, shots rang out around Mapo Hall, Ibadan's colonial-style city hall on a hilltop where regional governor Lam Adesina addressed a campaign rally. In 1999 Adesina's opposition Alliance for Democracy (AD) won elections in Oyo state, whose capital is Ibadan, and in all five other southwestern Yoruba states including Lagos. Obasanjo, rejected by the Yoruba in 1999 as a stooge of the Muslim Hausa-Fulani of the north, has since made peace with his kinsmen. But efforts by his ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to wrest the governorship in Oyo and other opposition states is seen widely as a potential source of danger. "The two sides are recruiting and arming thugs," said an Ibadan clergyman who asked not to be named for security reasons. "Last month there was a PDP rally here and convoys of thugs drove round the city for four hours and there was open display of firearms," he said. "A week later AD held theirs and they were shooting too." Many residents corroborated the accounts. Some feared that few people would have the courage to go out and vote. Adesina's spokesman Yinka Agboola accused PDP militants of firing around the rally at Mapo Hall. 'Strong man'Down the hill, PDP stalwart Lamidi Adedibu, known all over the city as the "Strongman of Ibadan Politics" broke bread with a coterie of close associates. He clasped a cell phone to his left ear as a "scout" relayed live what was going on in Adesina's camp. "Obasanjo is my friend and he is going to win the election," Adedibu said after his phone conversation. Adedibu is a veteran of the 1960s turmoil and many Ibadan residents say no one can match his ability to raise an instant army if it came to that. "We know if the other side loses they'll say we rigged the election. But they should forget violence," Adedibu said, a wry smile on his face drawing laughter from his followers. Many Nigerians are bracing for trouble because the elections, topped by a presidential poll on April 19, will be the first to be organized by civilian rulers for over 20 years. Nigeria has not managed a successful transition from one elected government to another since 1960, with such attempts ending in violence and military coups in the 1960s and in 1983. Obasanjo has vowed to call out troops to keep order if that is what is required to ensure Nigeria manages a democratic transition "to show the world it is mature." But political analysts and historians say the main problem -- the refusal of politicians to accept electoral defeat -- is as true today as it was in the 1960s. Thompson himself gave credence to that fear. "I don't see how anybody can defeat Obasanjo," he said. "If he does not win then we'll not accept any other person. May be Armageddon will come sooner." Copyright 2003 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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